Births in Delhi still below pre-pandemic levels: Data

Births and deaths in Delhi remained below pre-pandemic levels for the fourth and second year running respectively in 2023, according to data from the Union territory’s Civil Registration System (CRS) released on Monday. Even the rate of births and deaths – births and deaths per thousand population – was below the levels seen before the global Covid-19 outbreak.
Data from CRS, which records all registered births and deaths, shows that Delhi registered 315,087 births and 132,391 deaths in 2023. While both births and deaths have increased compared to 2022 – when 300,350 births and 128,106 deaths were registered – they are much lower than in the years preceding the pandemic. In 2019, for example, Delhi registered 365,868 births and 145,284 deaths.

To be sure, the trend for births and deaths was not the same during the pandemic. Births decreased year-on-year in both 2020 and 2021 to their lowest levels in CRS data since 2006, the earliest year for which the CRS report gives data. The number of births in 2023 was at its fourth lowest level since 2006.
Deaths, on the other hand, decreased in 2020, but shot up in 2021 to their highest level in CRS data since 2006, before decreasing again. Around 140,000 deaths were registered from 2018 to 2020; 171,476 in 2021, and 128,106 in 2022. The 132,391 deaths in 2023 are higher than in 2022 but lower than the number registered in the years immediately preceding the pandemic.
The trends seen in absolute number of births and deaths are also reflected in the rate of births and deaths. The latter adjusts the absolute number by projected population.
Delhi registered 14.66 births per thousand population in 2023. This rate is higher than the rate of 14.24 per thousand population in 2022, but much lower than the pre-pandemic level of around 18-19 births per thousand population. Similarly, the death rate in 2023 was 6.16 per thousand population. This number was 6.07 in 2022, 8.28 in 2021, and around seven from 2018 to 2020.
To be sure, the birth rate in CRS was steadily declining in Delhi even before the pandemic. It has just decreased much sharply since the pandemic. The death rate in CRS was relatively steady.
These numbers also need to be read with another caveat. Any births and deaths that are not registered are not counted in CRS data, but births and deaths of non-domicile populations are counted in CRS data. Therefore, a more reliable estimate of domicile births and deaths is the Sample Registration System (SRS), which estimates births and deaths using sample surveys conducted by the Registrar General of India (RGI). SRS data has not been published for the years after 2020.
With the need for caution in reading CRS data highlighted above, two other important results of the 2023 CRS data for Delhi are the increase in institutional births and deaths and a fall in the sex ratio at birth. Institutional births – those that take place in hospitals, health centres, or such institutions – were 95.58% of all births in 2023, the highest since 2005, the earliest year for which data is given. Institutional deaths were 66.94% of all deaths, the third highest in the CRS data. The highest proportion of institutional deaths in Delhi was in 2013, when the number stood at 70.11%.
While there was no break from past trends in the proportion of institutional births in Delhi during the pandemic years, the proportion of deaths in institutions had decreased. The long-term trend of both births and deaths was a growth in the proportion taking place in institutions.
Delhi government did not respond to requests for comment on the report.
Experts said that a drop in the birth rate was likely due to economic factors, and not a result of a drop in fertility levels of Delhi residents.
Public health expert Dr Jugal Kishore, director professor and former head of community medicine at Safdarjung Hospital, said that he expects the birth rate to eventually recover in a few years.
“The low birth rate in 2023 could be because of multiple factors such as economic disruptions caused by lockdowns and various restrictions which caused financial instability for many families leading to delayed marriages, and prompted many to postpone family growth and post-Covid health concerns may also have contributed to delays in family planning. But as the Covid is past us and the health concerns caused by Covid are vanishing, the birth rate is likely to increase over the next few years,” said Dr Jugal Kishore.
(With inputs from Alok KN Mishra)